Ins and Outs for 2024
A series of baking and pastry predictions I'll ask you to forget about if none come true!
A quick note - January orders open today, and per usual newsletter subscribers get a head start - you’ll be able to order via this link beginning at 10 am. This month is all about citrus! I’ll also have my online king cake class for sale again beginning January 6th (the official start of Mardi Gras). Full disclosure, my classic king cake recipe will be in print somewhere special quite soon, but the class features a ton of extra features (such as suggestions on how to customize your king cake), as well as a bake-along video. Even novice bakers have had great results with it!
Me, a nerd, ready to teach you how to bake a king cake!
The art of trend prediction
I’m fascinated by trend prediction, nearly as much as I’m fascinated by other people’s gift guides (this is a very rich time of year for me). Most trend reporting seems to be driven by hard data - generally consumer polling run by large corporations, or by noting shifts in search terms on Google. Here’s one example.
I’d argue, however, that this type of reporting is actually responding to trends, rather than predicting them. True trends, in my opinion, are more subtle - a groundswelling of ideas driven by creatives, who are in turn responding to the work of other creative people. These ideas move in an interdisciplinary fashion, with shapes, colors, and patterns shifting from architecture to fashion to the plated dessert. With no other qualifications than being chronically online, I’d like to present my own predictions for pastry trends - from flavor fads to cake design crazes. I’ve also asked some pals to contribute their own thoughts - thank you KC, Kassie, and Nicole!
Without further ado, the predictions:
Going Out:
Squiggles
It needs to be said. Lately I rarely reach for my wide basketweave tip when designing a cake, and my original plain tip squiggle cake design is getting less and less engagement on social media. I’m also finding fewer folks tagging me in their own replicas of the style. We had a good run while it lasted!
Surrealism / trompe l’oeil
Surrealism will wend its way away again, at least for a while. The Laila Goharification of dining and entertainment is a raging fire right now, but these fires burn fast and I think tastemakers are going to want to stay a step ahead of the curve. One thing I’ve been fascinated by is if the Gohar’s themselves are going to shift their aesthetic to stay fresh. Another question- how are these visually stunning and peculiar displays of food actually, you know, eaten?
In the same vein, I think trompe l’oeil is losing its luster, and we are all thoroughly tired of hyperrealism / “is it cake”?
Bows
Listen, I love them too, but we’re rapidly nearing oversaturation.
50’s maximalism
I think Lambeth is here to stay but I foresee folks growing a little weary of full 50’s inspired tablescapes. I’ve counted three T Magazine trend pieces on the matter which means it will all be over soon.
Trad wife lite
While I don’t think time-intensive pastimes, like making sourdough or canning preserves, are going anywhere, I do think we’ll see folks embracing less of a total cosplay of traditionalism in all its prairie-dress glory. As the aesthetic continues to be co-opted by neoconservatives, I think we’ll find these foodways incorporated in more subversive, playful, and less all-consuming ways (we are all so, so tired). I’m personally looking forward to us all getting a little more punk.
Status olive oil
My friend Savannah suggested this, and it’s perfect. No further questions!
Coming in:
Tambour / stripes
Fluted or half round furniture finishes are still trending, and I think the look will continue to creep into cakes- like the charlotte by Zélikha Dinga, above, or as an updated and more restrained interpretation of layered ruffles, executed in buttercream or marzipan rather than fondant. I think we’ve already begun to see hints of it more casually in these meringue garnishes by Fabían von Hauske Valtierra.
I couldn’t quite decide if this needed to be a whole separate category, but I also think we’ll see more polo-inspired stripes and broad color blocking- like this stunning sheet cake from Elana Berusch.
Lacquer
High gloss paint finishes and wooden surfaces buffed to a mirror shine are surging in interior design. I think we’ll see this translating to cake surfaces- but not in the same way as the dated galaxy mirror glaze trend. Think more subtle applications, like the caramel gloss of a dobos torte or the sheen of a croquembouche, pushed into unexpected dimensions - or the eerie lacquer of this blood-red tiered cake with its chrome adornments.
Playing with scale
Speaking of croquembouche, I think we’ll continue to see playful presentations of unusual scale. I’ve seen so many folks going up this holiday season- with towers of buns, ham, shrimp, and more.
More bakers will be making long cakes (like the stunning long wedding cake Roxanne Rosensteel made here), and I think we’ll see more wide, broad, and low profile bakes, like the supersize tarte Tropezienne designer Sarah Staudinger had in lieu of wedding cake. Natasha Pickowicz even recommended shallow, wide cake pans in a recent newsletter. Note- when I asked around to my pastry pals what their 2024 predictions would be, both Kassie Mendieta (@ibakemistakes) and Nicole Redd-McIntosh (@nicolebakescakes) echoed that cakes will be loooooong!
Pet peeve- I’ve seen otherwise chic and arguably environmentally friendly people continue to use styrofoam bases for their croquembouche-like towers. They look totally gauche once you start pulling food from them and they’ll never decompose. It’s past time for folks to get more creative.
Candied fruit
While I do think the surge of interest in candied fruit is tied to both the surrealism trend and 50’s maximalism (and itself has already been covered by T Magazine), I think folks are only scratching the surface of the possibilities of candied fruit in cake design and dessert plating. Camilla Wynne’s upcoming book Nature’s Candy is going to be a modern classic, I can already tell, and will introduce the techniques to a new audience. Who can resist the slick, translucent gloss of a candied citrus peel? In that same vein, I suspect 2024 is going to be a big year for bergamot - a backing note in Fiori di sicilia (subject of this trend piece).
Ceramic techniques and pottery finishes
The carving/ relief technique popularized by Yip Studio will get pushed further (like the inset-squiggle hybrid technique baker Kassie Mendieta uses below). I think it will evolve to mimic mid century modern ceramic styles, emphasizing speckled textures (such as the rise of popularity in black sesame buttercream, as seen in More than Cake and occasionally on my own Instagram, where concrete buttercream performs well).
Splatterware
If terrazzo is starting to feel dated (again?), then I think the next vintage-inspired treatment to be revamped is splatterware. This very chic LA-based shoppy-shop is selling a splatterware enamel set, and Martha Stewart recently posted a throwback photo of a dining table set with speckled plates that performed significantly better than other recent posts. The applications to dessert are pretty endless- you could spritz thinned out food dye on pretty much anything - so I think we’ll start seeing this treatment on cakes soon.
Repetition
Drawing inspiration from textile design, I think we’ll continue to see minimalist, repetitive dessert designs, with elements laid out in regimented rows- like the quilted cookie wall at the recent Cake Zine launch.
Braids and knots
Bows are already jumping the shark, but I think folks are going to have a hard time shaking the urge to tie unexpected food items into dimensional shapes. The resurgence of the prep aesthetic leads me to believe we’ll see the coquettish bows supplanted by a more J Crew vibe - like the above braided leek. Nautical knots could be close behind. Another option? A basketweave pattern, like the below cake by Emma Freya, or a garland like Mary Denham’s recent popcorn strand-adorned cakes.
Fruit sculptures + stacking
We’re already seeing this floral design trend leap into the baking world- as seen in Pam Thibodeaux’s inventive kumquat cake adornments.
Alt sugar
A secret weapon pastry chefs have long known about is going to go mainstream- using alternative sugars not for health reasons, but for their sophisticated flavor shifts. Mehreen Karim recently debuted a bruléed coconut sugar donut at Little Egg in NYC, and pastry star Hannah Ziskin features a muscovado sugar ice cream on the menu at Quarter Sheets in LA. Date molasses is ever more prominent in mainstream stores (even here in Louisiana) - I’ve been adding it to buttercream for years for it’s utterly delicious floral brown-sugar notes.
Subtle techniques for advancing flavor
I need to think of a catchier name for this, but I think we’ll see fewer hard-to-find ingredients and more recipes featuring subtle tweaks to standard ingredients to add a new depth of flavor- like in Molly Baz’ toasted flour shortbread recipe. Bay-area based baker Mary Denham of Bloom’s End uses oat milk in bakes for the subtle notes it imparts, and beyond grains, milk will be malted, and sugar, too, will be toasted - a la Stella Parks. We might see this in shifting fats as well, with recipe developers subbing olive oil for butter (like in my recent cranberry shortbread bars), or even using nut oils like walnut or hazelnut.
Ireland
Natasha Pickowicz led a group trip to Ireland this year. J Crew hosted an influencer event at Ballymaloe. Kerrygold has sponsored half the pastry chefs in my feed. I predict the Irish invasion will continue with renewed attention to bread-and-butter pudding, fruit and cream desserts, trifle, barmbrack, and soda bread.
Rice pudding
IDK I just have a feeling about this one!!
Bonus Prediction Round, Featuring Friends of BSC
I asked three of my favorite internet friends to contribute their vision of the future of sweets in 2024 - read on below for their predictions!
KC Hysmith, PhD, food scholar
Author of the Penknife newsletter
Lil’ Treats
“Life is hard and I imagine 2024 won't be any less difficult, so I see a continuation of the "lil treats" trend, but with baked goods. We've had big cakes, sharing cakes, and slightly smaller cakes, but we need a one or two-bite treat. I'm not keen to go back to cupcakes or cake pops, so I'm hoping petit fours come back into style. The perfect mix of lil treat, nostalgia bake, and *aesthetic*.”
Novelty Cake Pans
“Some other cake specific trends I foresee are a return to novelty cake pans from the 1980s/1990s. My professional cake baking grandma is about to clean out her stores and I imagine many other grandmas are about to do the same. An influx of novelty cake pans are just waiting for us to put our 2020s spin on them. Additionally, I hope to see an update to the basketweave piping style.”
Non-Dairy Condensed Milk
“Also, a flavor trend I see (*hope*) is on the horizon: sweetened condensed alt-milks. So much sweet, non-dairy potential there.”
Kassie Mendieta, former cake goblin turned recipe developer
Author of the Bake Chats newsletter
Cake x Fashion x Design
“There is most definitely a boom of culinary creative studios and culinary producers exploring the overlap between art, fashion and emotion through the ephemerality of food coming in 2024. People like Sophia Roe, Sophia Stolz and Paris Starn are quick to come to mind in this space. Sophia Stolz did this huge art forward cake spread for Miu Miu earlier this year with an array of real and fake deco cakes. We will start to see more food (especially desserts) seamlessly tied into fashion brand collection drops, fashion week after parties, campaigns, etc. The inspiration of these people will definitely extend into the everyday kitchen as home bakers continue to evolve and push the boundaries of their own creativity.”
Parthenon Core
“Finally, I think we are gonna see more of what I'm tentatively calling Parthenon-core piping on cakes + desserts. Michelle Ashurov, Camilla Wynne, and Nicola Lamb have displayed versions of this emerging trend. Much like the basket weave squiggle of the summer of 2023, I think it's something that doesn't require much more fancy equipment other than a large basket tip that can easily be recreated by bakers everywhere giving a fancy Ancient Greece vibe to a cake.”
Nicole Redd-McIntosh, executive pastry chef and cake designer
Heart-Shaped Box
“Lambeth Heart Cakes will continue to be big for 2024- I think people love the nostalgia of the heavy piping and who doesn't love a heart shaped cake.”
Not-So-Basic Wedding Cakes
“Different cake clavor Combinations will be big, I think people are wanting the not-so-basic cake flavors: olive oil cake, yuzu curd, black sesame cake, basil and strawberry filling.”
Cake As Meadow
“Cake and flowers are always a great thing, but I think the cake meadow brings together a new way to incorporate florals into the cake scene.”
Thanks for a fun start to 2024 newsletter! If you haven’t already, check out photographer Cig Harvey’s latest work using cakes (all made by her daughter) as commentary on themes of ephemerality, perception, sensory experiences, and color/beauty. It’s interesting to see an artists use of cake as a subject vs how we bakers use cake as a medium for creative expression - exactly Cassie’s observations about the intersection of art + cake!
https://www.dowlingwalsh.com/exhibitions/cig-harvey3
I loved this anticipated trends of 2024 issue. I'm looking forward to the candied fruit; broad color blocking on sheet cakes; playing with scale (e.g. long cakes or lil' treats); novelty cake pans; and non-dairy condensed milk.
I wonder if another trend will be neighborhoods with micro-bakeries in homes. In my neighborhood where I lived a few years ago, we had a bread baker, a cookie baker, a nursery, and a cake baker all within walking distance. Order your bread early in the week and then stop by on the weekend during defined hours for pick up. It was delightful.